Precipitous Decline of NIH R01 Success Rates

The rate of NIH grant application success has fallen precipitously in the past few years. Although NIH Director Elias Zerhouni's recent Science commentary "touted" that success rates will decline to only 19% next fiscal year, this is affected by the fact that while competitive continuation success rates hover around 32%, actual funding success rate of NEW unsolicited R01 applications was only a meager 9%! See table below. This is a drop from 55% and 20% just 5 years ago.

Seriously, scientists, particularly new investigators cannot possibly be expected to spend time writing 10 different grants just to get 1 funded. There wouldn't be any time to DO REAL SCIENCE anymore, not to mention feed the family!

If the R01 funding mechanism is supposed to be the bread and butter of most independent investigators in the nation, it is easy to imagine a large proportion of scientists with careers stunted and unable to attain promotion, tenure, and forced to leave academia. Also, at the time when graduation rates of math, science, and engineering students is on the decline in the U.S. compared to Japan, China, and Europe-- it is shuddering to think how such an inhospitable environment for science may influence new scientific innovations and discoveries in the U.S. and discourage future generations of students from pursuing science to pursue alternative careers.

Table. Fate of unsoliciated R01 research grant applications, by new and competitive renewal grant applications. (Source: NIH)
(Click to enlarge)